Huitong.com October 27th - On Thursday (October 27th), the US dollar index fluctuated within a narrow range. The US durable goods orders and initial data released during the period were both less than expected, but had limited impact on the US dollar. The pound fell from a high level against the dollar, once fell to 1.2199, because the Brexit concerns overshadowed the UK's GDP. Spot gold volatility rose slightly, US durable goods orders data performance is poor, continue to provide support for gold prices, but the market seems to be waiting for the next trading quarter of the US third quarter GDP data; crude oil market, the recent OPEC can really reduce production The question has warmed up, but the news inside the day revealed that OPEC may propose a 4% reduction in production to Russia, helping the oil price to rebound moderately and the downward pressure has eased. ![[European hotspot] The US data is not good enough to pressure the US dollar, and the production cuts have helped the oil price rebound.](http://i.bosscdn.com/blog/4d/ed/75/e2d07a0c1b0984d32c3884502e.jpg)
[List of major market conditions]
Foreign exchange market: Thursday (October 27) In the European market, the US dollar index fluctuated within a narrow range. The US durable goods orders and initial data released during the period were both lower than expected, but had limited impact on the US dollar. Analysts said that the expectation of the Fed's interest rate hike in December has been reflected in the recent gains in the dollar, and the short-term dollar rally is limited. The pound fell from a high level against the dollar, once fell to 1.2199, because the Brexit concerns overshadowed the UK's GDP. The euro rebounded against the dollar, hitting a high of 1.0930, but investors were cautious ahead of Friday's US GDP data. In the hourly chart, after the euro has to break through the resistance along the downtrend channel, the short-term trend tends to be optimistic. In other non-US currencies, the dollar rose slightly against the yen, hitting a three-month high of 104.88. The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar, hitting a daily low of 1.3348, as the oil price rebounded to boost the Canadian dollar.
Due to the recent high expectations of the Fed’s interest rate hike, and the market expects that the Bank of Japan will remain unchanged next week, the US dollar against the yen on Thursday (October 27), the New York market hit a new high of 104.95 since August 1; the exchange rate may not be too long Time will test 105 mark, but whether it can be further up is still doubtful; this Friday and next week, the market will usher in a series of risk events such as Japan's CPI, unemployment rate and the Bank of Japan's resolution, which is expected to cause large fluctuations in the exchange rate.
Crude oil: On Thursday (October 27th), the international oil price fluctuated slightly. Although the market still questioned whether OPEC could really reduce production, there was news that OPEC might propose a 4% reduction in production in Russia, leaving the market to cut production. The US oil has gained some support in the middle of the Bollinger Band. If the support is intact, the oil price will still have a chance to regain its gains. Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Sweden's Nordic Bank (SEB), said in a research report on Wednesday (October 26) that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is still likely to meet at a formal meeting in Vienna on November 30th. A production limit agreement has been reached, but they may need to raise the proposed ceiling to 33.5 million barrels per day. However, the oil market still faces more doubts. First, the influence of OPEC is declining. Second, there are still variables in whether or not the production can be reduced. Even some countries continue to increase production. According to Gaurav Sodhi, senior analyst at Intelligent Investor, OPEC is a declining organization with limited influence. Although OPEC said it will cut production, it did not give any specific details, and they could not even specify the production reduction quota for each member state. ANZ said on Thursday that investors are still skeptical about whether OPEC can implement a preliminary agreement to reduce production. Nigerian Oil Minister Kachikwu said on Thursday that the reopening of the Forcados field will result in Nigeria's oil production of 2 million barrels per day; current production is 1.8 million barrels per day. On the whole, the short-term downside risk of oil prices has weakened. US oils have remained volatile before the US$49-52. If the support of the US$49 mark can be maintained, the possibility of a mid-line rise is high; the short-term initial resistance is at the 50-dollar mark. The 10-day moving average resistance is around $50.26; the 30-day moving average support is around $48.45.
In the stock market: European pan-European 300 index closed up 0.03% on Thursday; UK FTSE 100 index closed up 0.3% on Thursday; Germany DAX index closed up 0.1% on Thursday; France CAC 40 index closed down 0.1% on Thursday; Spain The IBEX index closed up 0.3% on Thursday.
Precious metals: On Thursday (October 27), the US durable goods orders in September showed less than expected, and the price of gold once broke through the $1,270 mark. However, as the market generally expects that the US GDP will improve significantly in the third quarter, it will still suppress the formation of gold prices. However, India's strong physical demand still provides support for the gold price, and both long and short sides may start a decisive battle on the next trading day. According to the US federal funds rate futures, the Fed’s interest rate hike in December fell slightly to 71.5% (previously 75%). However, the price of gold was once again blocked after it rushed to $1,272, and it is now falling back to around $1,267.03, which is dragged down by the optimistic US GDP growth forecast for the third quarter. On Friday (October 28), the US will release third-quarter GDP data. The current market is expected to grow by 2.5%, and the second quarter will increase by 1.4%. If the data is in line with expectations, it will provide support for the Fed to raise interest rates at the end of the year, limiting the rebound in gold prices. Expectations also caused the gold ETF holdings to fall to a one-month low. Data shows that the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) - SPDR Gold Trust Wednesday (October 26) gold holdings fell 1.49% from Tuesday (October 25) to 942.59 tons, the lowest position in more than a month. However, the gold price is still relatively firm, and the strong demand for gold is still providing support for the gold price. India, the world's second-largest gold consumer, will welcome holiday gold buying, so gold prices are expected to rise in the next few days. In Indian festivals such as Diwali, gold is usually given as a gift. MKSPAMP Group trader Sam Laughlin said that the physical demand in Asia continues to support the market, and the price of gold is still consolidating between $1250-1275. GFMS, the UK's gold mining services company, believes that physical gold demand may recover, keeping prices above $1,040 per ounce. The average price of gold in 2017 is expected to be $1,420 per ounce. Trump’s victory in the general election will push the price of gold to $1,500 per ounce.
[List of economic data]
1 The National Bureau of Statistics (ONS) released data on Thursday (October 27) showing that the UK's third-quarter GDP annual rate rose by 2.3%, the highest level in more than a year, and higher than expected and the previous value ( Both are 2.1%); the UK's third-quarter GDP quarterly rate rose by 0.5%, which was higher than the expected value of 0.3%, but lower than the previous value of 0.7%. Despite the impact of Brexit, the UK economy has barely slowed in the third quarter, further weakening the possibility of the Bank of England cutting interest rates again next week.
2 Thursday (October 27), UK CBI retail sales difference in October 21, expected value of -2, the previous value of -8; UK November CBI retail sales expected index of 21, expected value -, before the value of 7; the United Kingdom 10 The monthly CBI retail sales difference recorded the highest value since September 2015; the UK CBI retail sales expectation index recorded the highest value since December 2015. The unusually warm weather in September finally ended, which boosted the UK's fall apparel sales, helping the UK's October CBI retail sales record to perform better than expected and set a new record for more than a year, indicating recent household spending. There is still some kinetic energy, but the devaluation of the pound is expected to push up prices next year, which is expected to reduce the purchasing power of the people.
3 On Thursday (October 27), the US Department of Labor data showed that the number of jobless claims in the US on October 22 was less than expected: the number of jobless claims in the US on October 22 was 258,000 (higher than The expected value of 255,000) was less than 300,000 for 86 consecutive weeks, and the continuous cycle was the longest since 1970. The previous value was revised from 266,000 to 261,000. In the US, the number of jobless claims for the week of October 15 was 2.039 million, the lowest level since June 2000, and lower than the expected value of 2.052 million. The previous value was revised from 2.057 million to 2.054 million; the United States October 22 At the beginning of the week, the average number of people claiming unemployment benefits was 253,000, and the previous value was revised from 251,800 to 252,000.
4 US September durable goods orders initial rate decreased by 0.1%, less than expected and the previous value increased by 0.3%, due to weak market demand for computers and electronic products, which may cause market players to lower the fourth quarter of the United States Estimated growth in business spending. The so-called core durable goods orders, which deducted the monthly rate of non-defense durable goods orders, recorded a decline of 1.2% in September after a three-month increase in orders, and the largest drop in February.
[Fundamental message list]
1 Goldman Sachs raised its third-quarter GDP in the US to 2.9% from 2.7% on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs said that the GDP is expected to rise because the US merchandise trade deficit in September was 56.1 billion US dollars, 4.4 billion US dollars less than expected. In addition, total exports increased by 0.8%, consumer goods exports increased by 4.4%, and capital goods exports increased by 3.7%. Barclays raised its US third-quarter GDP growth forecast from 2.6% to 3%, and still expects strong household consumption and continued improvement in auto imports will boost the economy.
2 According to foreign media reports, sources said that representatives of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries proposed a 4% reduction in production to Russia during this week's closed meeting in Riyadh. The Algerian oil captain said on Thursday that OPEC's Algiers agreement is irreversible and the Algiers agreement is in the process of being implemented. The first OPEC Expert Meeting will be held on Friday and the OPEC meeting on November 30 will determine the share of production. Three OPEC sources said that a common consensus is that only Libya, Nigeria and Iran should be excluded from the agreement, because the output of these three countries has been hit by war and sanctions. Bloomberg also pointed out that OPEC aims to use the frozen production agreement it has reached for the first time in eight years to reduce the global excess of crude oil inventories.
3 European Central Bank Management Committee Novotny said on Thursday (October 27) that central banks are operating in “extraordinary periods†and that the European Central Bank will make a decision on whether to extend QE in December. The ECB will make two decisions in December, one is how long to extend quantitative easing, and the other is what other assets will be purchased. The ECB’s policy is successful, its regulation of major banks is working, and loan demand is steadily recovering; and the eurozone’s economic expansion remains moderate and the labor market is growing.
4 When the market widely believes that the European Central Bank will announce its policy changes at the December meeting, the Bank of Japan Kuroda said that he should not expect the Bank of Japan to take action next week. Kuroda hinted that the Bank of Japan may not need to buy 80 trillion yen in assets every year to bring Japan's 10-year bond yield close to zero. However, local media still expect the Bank of Japan to postpone the inflation target to 2018. The European Central Bank said it will reach its inflation target as soon as possible; and the Bank of Japan has been trying to maintain its credibility, but this is futile.
[Careful Statement] Huitong.com maintains neutrality in the statements and opinions of the text, and does not provide any express or implied warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the content contained. Customers should be aware of all the risks associated with the trading of foreign exchange precious metals and bear full responsibility.
The content copyright belongs to the Huitong Finance brand. Please reprint this article to indicate: "The article is from Huitong.com". Offenders!
Keywords:
Men Sunglasses,Best Stylish Sunglasses,Mens Fashion Sunglasses,Stylish Sunglasses For Men
WENZHOU BOCHENG EYEWEAR CO.,LTD , https://www.bocheyewear.com