Business Club September 15 hearing this week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 3.84%. No one gains positive income. The top decliners were SW Building Materials, SW Carriage Equipment, SW Nonferrous Metals, SW Utilities, and SW Mining. The smaller declines are SW Food Tourism, SW Commercial Trading, SW Light Industry Manufacturing, SW Food & Beverage, SW Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery. SW textile and clothing decreased by -3.59%. From the sub-sector point of view, SW textiles fell 2.98%, SW apparel fell 4.28%. Subject stocks have performed, and brand clothing has entered the adjustment period after a good performance in the previous period.
Recently, China Reserve Cotton Management Corporation further publicized the list of the first batch of reserve warehouses for cotton collection and storage in 2011. It was further clarified that cotton collection and storage started on September 1st. At present, the State Reserve's cotton stocks are at the bottom of the list, and the purchase and storage may eliminate the impact of new cotton on the cotton price and make cotton prices bottom in the fourth quarter. One-third of the cotton price decision depends on funds, one-third sees policies, and one-third sees supply and demand. Market demand is still one of the most important factors affecting cotton prices. The current trend of debt crisis in Europe and the United States is still unclear. The global economic downturn will inevitably affect consumption, and the entire textile industry chain will be under pressure. Before the entire demand side has reversed, there is little possibility that the cotton price will strengthen. It is estimated that the price of the cotton price fluctuation next year will be around 20,000-23,000 yuan/ton. We will continue to pay attention to the issuance of detailed rules and the funding situation.
For export-oriented manufacturing companies, we believe that the judgment cycle depends on three factors: market expectations for raw material prices, inventory, and actual downstream demand. We have seen that cotton prices have stabilized since August 17 and have begun to slowly pick up. With the arrival of new cotton, the country’s purchase and storage, the expected drop in cotton prices is basically eliminated. At present, the production company's inventory is still much higher than last year, and it is expected that destocking will be carried out in the fourth quarter. In addition, overseas demand growth is slow. We recommend to take a cautious wait-and-see attitude for the leading export companies Lutai, Huafu Color Spinning, and closely follow the destocking situation and demand recovery process. Once the industry booms, the rise in costs will lead to division within the industry, orders will gradually be concentrated in leading companies, and leading companies may have investment opportunities in the fourth quarter.
For the apparel retail industry, high-quality branded retail enterprises are in line with the general trend of consumption upgrading and urbanization and are our long-term promising sectors. Among them, we debuted three home textile enterprises with large space, high-speed development, relatively infrequent competition, and rapid growth in company performance, as well as confirmed performance. In particular, Rolls-Royce Home Textiles recommended buying and long-term holding; the other main line is value-based stable growth. And companies with lower valuations, such as Sima clothing, seven wolves and so on. From the short-term perspective, the market continued to slump, and the branded apparel segment also entered the correction period. We believe that the decline is the best buying point. Recommend buying and holding for premium brand retailers.
Recently, China Reserve Cotton Management Corporation further publicized the list of the first batch of reserve warehouses for cotton collection and storage in 2011. It was further clarified that cotton collection and storage started on September 1st. At present, the State Reserve's cotton stocks are at the bottom of the list, and the purchase and storage may eliminate the impact of new cotton on the cotton price and make cotton prices bottom in the fourth quarter. One-third of the cotton price decision depends on funds, one-third sees policies, and one-third sees supply and demand. Market demand is still one of the most important factors affecting cotton prices. The current trend of debt crisis in Europe and the United States is still unclear. The global economic downturn will inevitably affect consumption, and the entire textile industry chain will be under pressure. Before the entire demand side has reversed, there is little possibility that the cotton price will strengthen. It is estimated that the price of the cotton price fluctuation next year will be around 20,000-23,000 yuan/ton. We will continue to pay attention to the issuance of detailed rules and the funding situation.
For export-oriented manufacturing companies, we believe that the judgment cycle depends on three factors: market expectations for raw material prices, inventory, and actual downstream demand. We have seen that cotton prices have stabilized since August 17 and have begun to slowly pick up. With the arrival of new cotton, the country’s purchase and storage, the expected drop in cotton prices is basically eliminated. At present, the production company's inventory is still much higher than last year, and it is expected that destocking will be carried out in the fourth quarter. In addition, overseas demand growth is slow. We recommend to take a cautious wait-and-see attitude for the leading export companies Lutai, Huafu Color Spinning, and closely follow the destocking situation and demand recovery process. Once the industry booms, the rise in costs will lead to division within the industry, orders will gradually be concentrated in leading companies, and leading companies may have investment opportunities in the fourth quarter.
For the apparel retail industry, high-quality branded retail enterprises are in line with the general trend of consumption upgrading and urbanization and are our long-term promising sectors. Among them, we debuted three home textile enterprises with large space, high-speed development, relatively infrequent competition, and rapid growth in company performance, as well as confirmed performance. In particular, Rolls-Royce Home Textiles recommended buying and long-term holding; the other main line is value-based stable growth. And companies with lower valuations, such as Sima clothing, seven wolves and so on. From the short-term perspective, the market continued to slump, and the branded apparel segment also entered the correction period. We believe that the decline is the best buying point. Recommend buying and holding for premium brand retailers.
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