Silent for several days, once in the explosion - Thursday (September 8) Zheng cotton suddenly heavy volume Masukura and led the commodity market. Wenhua Finance showed that the Zheng Cotton Index led the market with a 2.27% margin, and the daily Masukura more than 130,000 hands to more than 700,000 hands, the volume of 1.23 million hand days. Analysts said that with the fundamentals still weak, the long-term rise in the price of cotton caused by news and funding remains to be seen. Once the cotton market is concentrated in October, the day when the pattern of long and short deadlocks is broken is also the cotton price. When it fell.
The news of purchases and storages sparked enthusiasm for enthusiasm. The National Development and Reform Commission's Economics and Trade Division and the Ministry of Finance's Economics and Development Department issued a "Notice on Initiating the 2011 Preliminary Interim Cotton Storage and Storage Plan" on the 7th and decided to start the 2011 temporary cotton purchase and storage since September 8. The news of storage and collection stimulated the long-held enthusiasm of the long-standing. On the 8th, the 1205 contract closed at 22,115 yuan.
The timely start of cotton collection and storage is expected. Since the beginning of the new cotton year in the beginning of this month, the cotton price in the domestic market has been lower than the national announced cotton temporary storage price of 19,800 yuan/ton for five consecutive working days, triggering the start-up conditions of the storage plan. After the country has opened up the acquisition, it can theoretically buy nearly half of the domestic cotton production. The annual output of cotton in China is about 6.5 million tons, and the actual annual cotton demand of textile companies is about 10 million tons. If 3 million tons are purchased, the import demand will increase, which will also boost the US cotton.
Zheng Cotton’s enhanced external role in guiding the role of Zheng’s cotton will increase the price in the international market. It also shows that Zheng’s cotton price discovery function has fully demonstrated in the past year, and has played a more prominent leading role in leading the ICE cotton.
The first ** Dong Shuangwei analysis said that the US cotton has just been harvested, it must find a way out for exports, so the largest export market - China's supply and demand situation, will determine the level of US cotton export prices and the amount of exports. The situation of China's downstream textile enterprises is improving, which will inevitably lead to a surge in import demand, hype China, and raise the price of ICE cotton in the future, which will drive prices in the Chinese market higher. Conversely, once the situation of the downstream companies in China is not good, the signing of the contract volume has dropped drastically, eventually leading to the obstruction of exports and the drop in prices. This is also the fundamental reason for the external disk to fall and return to the Chinese market in mid-February.
Therefore, the consumption status of the Chinese market is the key factor affecting the direction of the ICE cotton futures. In the short term, it may be due to the promotion of speculative funds. There will be a certain deviation from the fundamentals, but it will not deviate too much. Based on this, the spread between the internal and external disks should be maintained at the normal level of reasonable spreads. In 2011/2012, it is no exception. The external disk will deviate from the domestic cotton futures, but it will bring about certain new year arbitrage opportunities.
Whether Zheng cotton will revert to the downtrend for the cotton on the 8th is a breakthrough in resistance, and the volume can be dramatically enlarged. However, in the case of fundamental stability of the spot market, the unilateral pull-up of the external ICE futures price and speculation on the short-term news of China's purchase and storage do not suffice to create sustained upward momentum. Analysts said that Zheng cotton's holding positions and the amount of turnover created indicate a preliminary victory in the formation of the bottom price of the period price. However, after the rise on Thursday, the focus of futures prices moved up, largely to absorb the bullish expectations. As there is no substantial improvement in downstream demand, cotton prices are expected to rise in the short-term in a short-term, but the rate will not be large.
In fact, as far as the trend of cotton is concerned, what is currently lacking is not capital but the basis for market development - supply and demand fundamentals. From the perspective of the stocks, the heavy volume rose sharply on September 8, but it was just past the previous year's volume record (4.54 million hands on November 24 last year) and the record of positions held (up to 88 on July 27 this year). More than 10,000 hands, the current market is far from being hot. Concerned about whether the follow-up funds can continue to enter, transactions can continue to enlarge, this is more important.
It is worth mentioning that, even if the fundamentals are still weak, the rise in cotton prices will allow some of the year's hedging units to enter the market smoothly. This will bring instability to the market and exacerbate the volatility. If the downstream demand continues to have to get better, once the cotton is centralized on the market in October, the day when the long and short deadlock pattern is broken is also the time when cotton prices have fallen.
The news of purchases and storages sparked enthusiasm for enthusiasm. The National Development and Reform Commission's Economics and Trade Division and the Ministry of Finance's Economics and Development Department issued a "Notice on Initiating the 2011 Preliminary Interim Cotton Storage and Storage Plan" on the 7th and decided to start the 2011 temporary cotton purchase and storage since September 8. The news of storage and collection stimulated the long-held enthusiasm of the long-standing. On the 8th, the 1205 contract closed at 22,115 yuan.
The timely start of cotton collection and storage is expected. Since the beginning of the new cotton year in the beginning of this month, the cotton price in the domestic market has been lower than the national announced cotton temporary storage price of 19,800 yuan/ton for five consecutive working days, triggering the start-up conditions of the storage plan. After the country has opened up the acquisition, it can theoretically buy nearly half of the domestic cotton production. The annual output of cotton in China is about 6.5 million tons, and the actual annual cotton demand of textile companies is about 10 million tons. If 3 million tons are purchased, the import demand will increase, which will also boost the US cotton.
Zheng Cotton’s enhanced external role in guiding the role of Zheng’s cotton will increase the price in the international market. It also shows that Zheng’s cotton price discovery function has fully demonstrated in the past year, and has played a more prominent leading role in leading the ICE cotton.
The first ** Dong Shuangwei analysis said that the US cotton has just been harvested, it must find a way out for exports, so the largest export market - China's supply and demand situation, will determine the level of US cotton export prices and the amount of exports. The situation of China's downstream textile enterprises is improving, which will inevitably lead to a surge in import demand, hype China, and raise the price of ICE cotton in the future, which will drive prices in the Chinese market higher. Conversely, once the situation of the downstream companies in China is not good, the signing of the contract volume has dropped drastically, eventually leading to the obstruction of exports and the drop in prices. This is also the fundamental reason for the external disk to fall and return to the Chinese market in mid-February.
Therefore, the consumption status of the Chinese market is the key factor affecting the direction of the ICE cotton futures. In the short term, it may be due to the promotion of speculative funds. There will be a certain deviation from the fundamentals, but it will not deviate too much. Based on this, the spread between the internal and external disks should be maintained at the normal level of reasonable spreads. In 2011/2012, it is no exception. The external disk will deviate from the domestic cotton futures, but it will bring about certain new year arbitrage opportunities.
Whether Zheng cotton will revert to the downtrend for the cotton on the 8th is a breakthrough in resistance, and the volume can be dramatically enlarged. However, in the case of fundamental stability of the spot market, the unilateral pull-up of the external ICE futures price and speculation on the short-term news of China's purchase and storage do not suffice to create sustained upward momentum. Analysts said that Zheng cotton's holding positions and the amount of turnover created indicate a preliminary victory in the formation of the bottom price of the period price. However, after the rise on Thursday, the focus of futures prices moved up, largely to absorb the bullish expectations. As there is no substantial improvement in downstream demand, cotton prices are expected to rise in the short-term in a short-term, but the rate will not be large.
In fact, as far as the trend of cotton is concerned, what is currently lacking is not capital but the basis for market development - supply and demand fundamentals. From the perspective of the stocks, the heavy volume rose sharply on September 8, but it was just past the previous year's volume record (4.54 million hands on November 24 last year) and the record of positions held (up to 88 on July 27 this year). More than 10,000 hands, the current market is far from being hot. Concerned about whether the follow-up funds can continue to enter, transactions can continue to enlarge, this is more important.
It is worth mentioning that, even if the fundamentals are still weak, the rise in cotton prices will allow some of the year's hedging units to enter the market smoothly. This will bring instability to the market and exacerbate the volatility. If the downstream demand continues to have to get better, once the cotton is centralized on the market in October, the day when the long and short deadlock pattern is broken is also the time when cotton prices have fallen.
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